Every popular lottery belief, measured against the real draw history. The result is published as it comes out — including when it backs the belief.
Each belief is compared with what chance alone would produce, worked out by formula rather than simulation. A difference only becomes a verdict when it is larger than the normal swing of a sample that size — with few draws it takes a big gap to convince, with many a small one is enough. Bands with few observations appear faded in the chart and do not affect the result.
We took the most drawn numbers of each period and measured how much they came out in the next one. If being hot were a property of the number, they would stay above average.
Every number was grouped by how long it had been absent before each draw. If being overdue predicted anything, the most overdue groups would sit above the reference line.
This is usually the most counter-intuitive one. Repetition is not the exception, it is what the draw normally does — and avoiding it means choosing against the average.
We measured how many draws contained three numbers in a row and compared it with what combinatorics predicts. Discarding combinations with runs improves nothing — it only removes games exactly as likely as the rest.
Your chance of winning does not change — every combination is worth the same. What changes is how many people you split with: numbers up to 31 appear in birthdays and are played far more, so draws loaded with them have more winners and a smaller prize each.
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